What’s changing in the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor methodology

The National Retail Federation has enhanced the methodology behind the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions. The Retail Monitor is a monthly measure of retail sales based on real, anonymized credit and debit card transaction data. The updated approach draws on a larger transaction panel, weights the panel to reflect U.S. Census demographics and calibrates results to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey. 

The changes give retailers, economists and analysts seasonally adjusted dollar levels and percentage changes for total retail, core retail and individual retail categories. 

One constant in the retail industry is change. During the past few years alone, we’ve experienced new tariffs reshaping product sourcing, AI changing how people explore and shop, and social platforms that have turned scrolling into transactions. 

As the trade association representing all of retail, one of NRF’s central jobs is to tell its story: retail’s size, its impact on the broader economy and the role it plays in the daily life of nearly every American. Doing that well requires data equal to the task. 

That’s the idea behind the enhanced methodology we announced for the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions. These changes take a meaningful step forward in how the Retail Monitor measures and reflects the industry and the consumers who drive it. 

How has the Retail Monitor transaction panel changed? 

The new methodology draws on 120 million cards in the Affinity Solutions panel, rather than a previously narrower cohort, lifting gross monthly spending captured from roughly $8 billion to nearly $40 billion. The larger transaction base is intended to provide a more representative view of consumer spending. 

How does the Retail Monitor better reflect U.S. consumers? 

The panel is now weighted to match U.S. Census demographics. This approach is designed to reflect U.S. consumers as a whole, rather than the customer base of any one card issuer or bank. 

The weighted panel is then calibrated to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey at the category level. The category results are aggregated to generate the Retail Monitor’s topline figures. 

What data does the updated Retail Monitor provide? 

The new methodology allows us to publish seasonally adjusted dollar levels for total retail, core retail and every individual category, alongside percentage changes. Together, these changes make the data more robust and more usable for retailers, economists and analysts. 

How does the Retail Monitor classify ecommerce sales? 

Ecommerce sales from store-based retailers, about 30% of the total, are folded back into their home categories to more accurately capture category sales. 

For example, when a home improvement chain’s online sales come in, they’re counted alongside its in-store sales under Building & Garden Supplies, rather than lumped into the more generic “Non-store Retailers” bucket as Census does. 

Online spending that cannot be allocated back to a specific retail category is now reported as “unallocated non-store sales.” 

What did the September 2026 Retail Monitor show? 

The improved precision is already visible in the numbers. September data show total retail sales, which excludes autos and gas, grew 0.28% to $560.8 billion and increased 4.05% year over year, seasonally adjusted. 

Core retail sales, which also excludes restaurants, came in at $453.1 billion, up 0.27% month over month and up 3.73% year over year, also seasonally adjusted. The Retail Monitor also provides full category breakdowns with both dollar amounts and percentages. 

What additional Retail Monitor data is planned? 

Looking ahead, NRF is working to add demographic cuts by income and age, which will let us share more granular insights into who is actually driving retail sales growth. 

Together, these updates reflect something bigger than a technical upgrade. They reflect NRF’s ongoing commitment to help retail build the data it needs to succeed, and give economists and policy makers greater visibility into our consumer-driven economy. 

Learn more about the new methodology and the data behind the Retail Monitor through NRF’s Center for Retail & Consumer Insights.