“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets.”
WASHINGTON – Retail sales slowed in June amid continued consumer worries about the impact of government policies on the economy, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.
“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This was the first monthly decline since February, and spending was down across almost all sectors. Economic fundamentals haven’t been disrupted yet and shoppers still have the ability to spend on priorities, but the economy is gradually slowing and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers. While passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ is clearly supportive of economic growth, unresolved and restrictive trade policies remain a significant headwind.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.33% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.19% unadjusted year over year in June, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.49% month over month and 4.44% year over year in May.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was down 0.32% month over month in June but up 3.36% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.23% month over month and 4.2% year over year in May.
Total sales were up 4.66% year over year for the first six months of the year and core sales were up 4.93%. The month-over-month drops were the first since February, when total and core sales both fell 0.22% from January.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
June sales were up in seven out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and health and personal care stores, but were down in all but one category on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 0.26% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 24.11% year over year unadjusted.
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were down 0.13% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.52% year over year unadjusted.
Health and personal care stores were down 0.31% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.47% year over year unadjusted.
General merchandise stores were down 0.15% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.18% year over year unadjusted.
Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.13% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.59% year over year unadjusted.
Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.22% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.71% year over year unadjusted.
Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.03% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.43% year over year unadjusted.
Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.04% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 1.14% year over year unadjusted.
Building and garden supply stores were down 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 5.33% year over year unadjusted.
To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
