As Retail Gets Real reaches its 400th episode, we’re joined by Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, for a special conversation reflecting on the year that was, and what it reveals about the future of retail. The milestone episode offers a comprehensive look at the forces that shaped the industry in 2025, from global expansion and trade policy to consumer behavior and artificial intelligence.
NRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show once again drew tens of thousands of retail leaders, technology partners and innovators to New York City last January. Shay says the event’s enduring importance lies in NRF’s ability to convene the industry at the very start of the year — creating space to reflect on the past while identifying what’s coming next.
Want to see what NRF's been up to?Take a look at our work on behalf of the retail industry in 2025.
With representation from across the retail ecosystem and growing international participation, Retail’s Big Show has become a global forum for collaboration, problem-solving and idea-sharing. For NRF, it’s also a critical listening post, helping the organization anticipate the issues retailers will face in the months ahead.
Going global
Retail’s global nature is a recurring theme throughout the episode. NRF’s expanding international presence includes the launch of Big Show Europe in Paris and continued growth in Asia-Pacific markets. Rather than exporting a U.S.-centric model, Shay says NRF’s goal is to convene retail leaders within their own regions, spotlight local market dynamics and foster cross-border learning.
In a world where supply chains, consumer behavior and commerce transcend borders, Shay emphasizes that global engagement is no longer optional — it’s essential to understanding modern retail.
One of the most consequential challenges of 2025 was ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and tariffs. Abrupt policy shifts disrupted long-standing supply chains and forced retailers to make difficult decisions under tight timelines.
While retailers proved resourceful and resilient, Shay says unpredictability is unsustainable. Clear, consistent trade policies are critical not just for businesses, but for consumers who ultimately feel the effects through higher prices and reduced product availability.
The episode also explores the evolving mindset of today’s consumer. Drawing on NRF research and insights from Chief Economist Mark Mathews, Shay describes consumers as cautious but capable — concerned about inflation and economic conditions, yet continuing to spend thoughtfully.
Across income levels, shoppers are increasingly value-driven, informed and deliberate. Even as sentiment remains low, consumer behavior tells a more optimistic story, revealing adaptability rather than paralysis in the face of economic pressure.
Artificial intelligence emerges as another defining theme of the year. Shay compares AI’s current moment to earlier technological inflection points such as ecommerce and mobile. While the scope of AI can feel overwhelming, he encourages retailers to start small — experimenting, learning and integrating AI into specific business challenges.
From supply chains and store operations to workforce productivity and customer engagement, AI is quickly becoming embedded across the retail industry. Leadership, Shay notes, plays a crucial role in setting the tone for adoption and innovation.
NRF is making sustained investments in education and talent development, including the launch of the NRF Business of Retail Initiative at Georgetown University. The initiative reflects a commitment to elevating understanding of retail’s economic impact and preparing the next generation of industry leaders.
(00:00:00) Marking 400 episodes and setting the stage for retail’s future
Why this milestone matters for the industry
What Retail’s Big Show reveals about where retail is headed
How convening leaders shapes priorities for the year ahead
Why retail’s global reality is changing how NRF shows up
(00:05:35) Trade policy, tariffs and the cost of uncertainty
How tariffs reshaped expectations for retailers in 2025
What supply chain disruption really looks like behind the scenes
Why predictability matters as much as policy outcomes
How upcoming legal decisions could change the path forward
(00:10:00) Keeping the consumer at the center of retail policy
Why retail is the front line of a consumer-led economy
How tariffs and inflation ripple through everyday spending
What consistency and affordability really mean for shoppers
Why consumer impact must guide policy decisions
(00:12:10) Understanding today’s consumer: Anxious, adaptable and still spending
Why consumer sentiment and behavior no longer move together
What the data reveals about holiday spending and growth
How different income levels are navigating economic pressure
What it really means to be a “resilient consumer”
(00:17:24) Making sense of AI without getting overwhelmed
Why AI feels bigger than past retail technology shifts
What leaders are getting right about starting small and learning fast
How experimentation is replacing hesitation across retail
Why demystifying AI matters for both the workforce and the customer experience
(00:25:01) Investing in the future of retail leadership and education
Why NRF launched the Business of Retail Initiative at Georgetown
How retail serves as a lens for understanding the broader economy
What connecting education, policy and industry unlocks
Why developing future leaders is critical to retail’s next chapter
Learn more about NRF’s work on behalf of the retail industry in 2025 at nrf.com/2025
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Learn about our retail education platform, NRF Foundation, at nrffoundation.org
Learn about retail advocacy at nrf.com/advocacy
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