What is NRF forecasting for total retail sales in 2026?
NRF forecasts that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion. The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical.
Why did NRF partner with Oxford Economics on this year’s forecast?
This year, NRF took a slightly different approach to producing our annual sales forecast by partnering with Oxford Economics, the world’s foremost independent economic advisory firm. We believe the deep retail experience of NRF combined with the unparalleled economic skillset of Oxford Economics will help us sharpen the economic outlook for the retail sector.
Does NRF consider the impact of tariffs in its 2026 forecast?
NRF does include the potential impact of tariffs in its forecast, but indirectly. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that tariffs remain close to current levels, albeit achieved through different means. Significantly higher tariffs or greater trade policy uncertainty could weigh on hiring and hit equity markets, weakening consumer spending.
Does NRF’s annual forecast account for inflation?
NRF’s forecast is presented in nominal terms, and while inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s target, goods inflation is likely to stay within a lower band. As a result, a meaningful portion of the projected sales growth is anticipated to reflect real gains rather than inflation-driven increases.
What other economic factors does the forecast consider?
NRF’s forecast is based on its own definition of core retail sales, which excludes automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
Are other external or geopolitical factors taken into account?
It’s important to acknowledge the challenges posed by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. There is currently too much uncertainty to factor these events into our forecast, but we will continue to assess potential impacts and issue a reforecast if circumstances dictate.
At the same time, the rapidly evolving geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges introduce additional uncertainty into the economic outlook.
How does NRF define retail sales?
Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include both store-based and online purchases in a broad range of retail categories including discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but exclude purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
What’s the difference between shopping and purchasing?
NRF defines shopping as browsing items with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing is the act of actually buying a product.
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