NRF has been conducting its annual Tax Returns Survey since 2007 to gauge consumer spending and saving behavior related to U.S. income tax returns. The 2025 annual tax return survey conducted by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics found that 54% of consumers expect a refund this year.

About the survey: The 2025 survey of 8,568 U.S. adults 18 and older was conducted January 31 - February 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. The survey was conducted prior to the IRS layoffs announced the week of February 17.