NRF has been conducting its annual Tax Returns Survey since 2007 to gauge consumer spending and saving behavior related to U.S. income tax returns. The 2026 annual tax returns survey conducted by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics found that 56% of consumers expect a refund this year.

About the survey: The 2026 survey of 7,901 U.S. adults 18 and older was conducted Jan. 30 – Feb. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.