Watch NRF experts breakdown what to expect this back-to-school season.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews and Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen recently hosted a webinar sharing the latest consumer data and breaking down how tariffs and inflation are influencing this year’s back-to-school spending.
Wages continue to rise faster than prices, and unemployment is low — even though employers are pulling back on new hiring. This is giving families room to spend, but many are still being cautious.
“The challenge going forward is, consumers just don’t have that buffer anymore to be able to deal with higher prices,” Mathews said. “If we see incomes become a little bit more challenged in the face of price rises, it’s going to be problematic for consumers because those pandemic-era savings have been completely spent down.”
To keep product prices low, many businesses are covering some tariff costs themselves. However, that can lead to worse outcomes for the economy over time if businesses compensate for those higher costs by reducing wages or hiring.
Cullen noted that shoppers are getting a head start this year: NRF’s research showed that by July, 67% of K-12 and college shoppers had already started, compared to 55% at this same time last year.
Total back-to-school spending is expected to reach $128 billion, which is slightly higher than 2024. Although consumers are spending less on average, more are purchasing key essential categories like furniture for back-to-college shoppers, which helps bolster the healthy spending this year. Many are choosing to hold off on tech purchases due to high prices and tighter budgets.
Value is still the name of the game for consumers. Cullen said that lower-income families are especially price-conscious, and higher-income shoppers are looking for the best deals and affordable alternatives.
Both Cullen and Mathews said shoppers are being more careful and thoughtful.
“We are seeing, again, that focus on early shopping, specifically tied to concern around higher prices and tariffs this year,” Cullen said.
Gen Z, particularly, is purchasing early to ensure they are getting the styles and sizes they want, especially in apparel and footwear. Retailers are responding with early promotions and more value messaging.
The early shopping pattern is expected to continue into the holidays, with families watching the economy closely and trying to shop smarter.
Even with economic challenges, families are ready for back-to-school. They are shopping earlier, spending carefully and making smart choices to manage their costs.
“I like to think of the consumer as sentimentally weak, but fundamentally sound,” Mathews said, capturing the delicate balance of concern and confidence shaping this year’s back-to-school season.
For more insights into NRF’s back-to-school trends and a recording of the webinar, visit the Back-to-School landing page.
