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If you’re interested in learning more about the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, want to set up a demo or learn more about exclusive offers from Affinity Solutions for NRF members, please fill out the Inquiry Form or contact the team at crci@nrf.com.
Where can I view the latest data from the Retail Monitor?
Visit the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor for the latest data.
What is the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions?
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions (also Retail Monitor), is a new monthly measure of retail sales created in collaboration with CNBC and the National Retail Federation, and powered by Affinity Solutions. All information produced by Affinity Solutions is aggregated and grounded in consumer permission. It does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
The companies’ new retail sales measurement tool leverages Affinity Solutions’ comprehensive data from more than 150 million credit and debit cards linked to 95 million consumers that tracks nearly 86 billion annual transactions, representing over 4 trillion dollars in annual spending, to measure the monthly and annual change in U.S. retail sales. The Retail Monitor has been shown to be highly correlated with the U.S. Census Bureau’s revised retail sales numbers.
Beginning November 2023, the Retail Monitor will be released approximately one week prior to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Retail Sales figures, offering an accurate, timelier and more in-depth look at consumer spending across the modern retail industry and consumer economy.
How is the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, different from the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales release?
The U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) relies on a survey of a sub-sample of businesses to create an estimate of broad-based retail trade activity. Typically released nine working days into each month, the MRTS numbers are later revised multiple times as new data from surveyed firms comes in.
While MRTS has long been an established resource for measuring the retail industry, the emergence of new sources of data and the blurring of traditional channels means it is time to re-evaluate how retail sales are tracked and measured.
Over the past few years, high frequency transaction data sets have achieved enough scale, accuracy and reliability to serve as a legitimate tool for calculating retail sales. Using data from Affinity Solutions on actual consumer spending, the Retail Monitor can deliver near real-time views of retail sales while also bypassing the revision process that is required for survey-based tools.
How accurate is the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions?
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, uses the same seasonalization approach as the U.S. Census Bureau and has been shown to be highly correlated with Census’ revised retail sales — the adjusted numbers published after the initial MRTS release as new data is collected and numbers are refined. Unlike MRTS, the Retail Monitor is not revised after its initial release.
CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions collaborated with leading economists and retail experts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the Retail Monitor’s methodology. The Retail Monitor has been shown to have a correlation of over 98% with MRTS. In addition, the Affinity Solutions data set has been fire-tested and reviewed by academics and financial firms that attest to the accuracy of the data in predicting and tracking retail sales.
The Retail Monitor will add significant new data to the conversation to better help markets, analysts and economists gauge the state of the retail industry and the consumer and provide unique insights into the retail economy. All information produced by Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated and does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
What does the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, measure?
The Retail Monitor data offers a headline “month-over-month” look at retail sales performance as well as “year-over-year” figures for the following:
Total retail sales (excluding auto, gas)
Core retail sales (excluding auto, gas and restaurants)
9 distinct retail sectors plus restaurants
Beginning in 2024, NRF members will have exclusive access to insights on how key demographics and channels are performing for specific retail sectors. Click here to learn more about how to become an NRF member.
Are there sourcing requirements for use of the data?
Yes. Any data used or pulled from the retail monitor must be sourced “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions.”
On second reference, you can shorten to “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.”
On third reference, you can shorten to “Retail Monitor.”
How do I get access to more data on specific businesses or sectors?
The Retail Monitor is powered by Affinity Solutions, the leading consumer purchase insights company. Affinity Solutions’ full suite of offerings goes beyond retail trends to empower companies with tailored insights for a particular brand, competitor and/or category.
To learn more about the full spectrum of insights that Affinity Solutions offers, you can request more information or schedule a demo.
How is the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, calculated?
The Retail Monitor leverages Comet™, Affinity Solutions’ insights platform to analyze retail sales across the United States. Comet™ provides dynamic and accurate consumer spending insights by ingesting, segmenting and processing data from over 150 million permissioned credit and debit card transactions.
All metrics referenced are calculated based on Affinity’s full comprehensive dataset and are seasonally adjusted where specified. Seasonal adjustments align our process with the established methods of the U.S. Census Bureau, promoting consistency and reliability. With this approach, the Retail Monitor delivers a timely, data-driven snapshot of retail health that resonates with the Census’ own revised retail data. All information produced by Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated and does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
