Frequently Asked Questions
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Where can I view the latest data from the Retail Monitor?
Visit the Retail Monitor monthly report for the latest data.
What is the Retail Monitor?
The Retail Monitor is a monthly measure of retail sales created in collaboration with CNBC and the National Retail Federation and powered by Affinity Solutions. All information produced by Affinity Solutions is aggregated and grounded in consumer permission. It does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
The Retail Monitor is built on actual transactions from a panel of 120 million annual debit and credit cards and weighted to reflect the demographic makeup of the U.S. population. These transactions are mapped to retail NAICS categories, resulting in a panel that measures about $40 billion in monthly gross spending, or about $480 billion annually, across 11 NAICS sectors. This data is then balanced and projected against the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) series to arrive at values that are representative of the total U.S. population’s retail sales spending each month, both top-line and at a sector level. Seasonal adjustments are performed at the sector level to align the process with the established methods of the U.S. Census Bureau, promoting consistency and reliability.
Since November 2023, the Retail Monitor has been released approximately one week prior to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Retail Sales figures, offering an accurate, timelier and more in-depth look at consumer spending across the modern retail industry and consumer economy. Retail Monitor data is not restated to reflect subsequent Census revisions — each release stands as published. Retail Monitor data will be reviewed biannually for changes in seasonality modeling and adjusted if needed.
How is the Retail Monitor different from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey release?
The U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) relies on a survey of a sample of U.S. retail businesses to create an estimate of broad-based retail trade activity. Typically released nine working days into each month, the MRTS numbers are later revised multiple times as new data from surveyed firms comes in.
While MRTS has long been an established resource for measuring the retail industry, the emergence of new sources of data and the blurring of traditional channels now allows for additional ways to track and measure retail sales. The Retail Monitor does not seek to replace the MRTS but rather serves as an additional set of data to support the broader retail ecosystem and those who track it closely.
Rather than surveying a sample of businesses, the Retail Monitor measures actual consumer transactions from a panel of 120 million debit and credit cards annually, then applies Bayesian calibration to anchor those transactions to MRTS totals — for each retail sector. Retail Monitor data is rebalanced to match annual demographic Census Bureau data, so the panel’s composition tracks the actual U.S. spending population. Calibration and seasonal adjustments are applied at the NAICS sector level. Total retail and core retail are the sum of those calibrated, seasonally adjusted sectors, with no further calibration or seasonal adjustment at the aggregate level. The result is a transaction-based measure that is closely aligned to Census retail sales and available about a week ahead of the MRTS release. The Retail Monitor publishes gross dollar levels, in addition to percent changes, for total retail, core retail and each individual sector.
How accurate is the Retail Monitor?
The Retail Monitor uses the same seasonalization approach as the U.S. Census Bureau and closely aligns with Census’ published retail sales figures through a Bayesian calibration to MRTS totals. The Retail Monitor is not amended to reflect later Census revisions. Each release reflects the methodology and data available at the time of publication, and prior months’ published figures are not restated. Retail Monitor data will be reviewed biannually for changes in seasonality modeling and adjusted if needed.
CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions collaborated with leading economists and retail experts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the Retail Monitor’s methodology. The Retail Monitor adds significant new data to the conversation to better help retailers, analysts and economists gauge the state of the retail industry and the consumer and provide unique insights into the retail economy. All information produced by Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated and does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
What does the Retail Monitor measure?
The Retail Monitor data offers a headline percentage change and gross dollar levels, month-over-month and year-over-year (seasonally adjusted), for:
Total retail sales (excluding auto and gas)
Core retail sales (excluding auto, gas and restaurants)
10 distinct retail sectors plus restaurants
Ecommerce sales are reported on an omnichannel basis, where possible: Online sales from store-based retailers are reapportioned back to their respective store sectors, where known, rather than fully grouped separately. The “Digital Products” category will now be renamed to “Unallocated Non-store Sales,” reflecting this remaining non-store spending that cannot be reapportioned back to any category.
Year-over-year figures are published on a seasonally adjusted, year-over-year basis.
NRF members will have access to additional insights on how key demographics and channels are performing for specific retail sectors in the near future.
Are there sourcing requirements for use of the data?
Yes. Any data used or pulled from the Retail Monitor must be sourced “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions.” On second reference, shorten to “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.” On third reference, shorten to “Retail Monitor.”
How is the Retail Monitor calculated?
The Retail Monitor is built on actual transactions from a panel of 120 million debit and credit cards annually and weighted to reflect the demographic makeup of the U.S. population. These transactions are mapped to retail NAICS sectors, resulting in a panel that measures about $40 billion in monthly gross spending, or about $480 billion annually, across 11 NAICS sectors. This data is then balanced and projected against the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Sales (MRTS) series to arrive at values that are representative of the total U.S. population’s retail sales spending each month at a sector level.
Seasonal adjustments align the process with the established methods of the U.S. Census Bureau, promoting consistency and reliability. Sector-level figures are calibrated using a Bayesian approach that anchors the panel to MRTS totals each month. Retail Monitor data is not restated to reflect subsequent Census revisions. Retail Monitor data will be reviewed biannually for changes in seasonality modeling and adjusted if needed.
All information produced by Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated and does not include any personal identifiable information of an individual consumer.
How do I get access to more data on specific businesses or sectors?
The Retail Monitor is powered by Affinity Solutions, the leading consumer purchase insights company. Affinity Solutions’ full suite of offerings goes beyond retail trends to empower companies with tailored insights for a particular brand, competitor and/or category. To learn more about the full spectrum of insights that Affinity Solutions offers, you can request more information or schedule a demo.
Affinity Solutions is the leading consumer purchase insights company. We provide a complete view of U.S. and U.K. consumer spending, across and between brands, via exclusive access to fully permissioned data from over 290 million debit and credit cards. Our proprietary AI technology, Comet™, transforms these purchase signals into actionable insights for business and marketing leaders to drive optimal outcomes and build lasting customer relationships. Visit us at www.affinitysolutions.com to discover how we're shaping the future of consumer purchase insights.
NRF's Center for Retail and Consumer Insights (CRCI) is committed to innovation and progress through our content and insights. To learn more, visit our homepage or email us at crci@nrf.com